The holiday season is upon us. It is the time of family gatherings that celebrate each other and the meaning of the season. Italian families, like so many of the ethnic families of Europe and the countries with European progeny, will have large Thanksgiving and Christmas celebrations. These celebrations will be peopled with grandparents, uncles, aunts, cousins, nieces, nephews, siblings, once-removed, and more. Celebrate now, for large Italian families will soon be a thing of the past. The incessant march of demographics is dooming the future of Europe.
Italy's birthrate is down to 1.2 children per woman, a level that is dramatically below the minimum replacement level for a stable population, of 2.1 children per woman. And it has been below replacement level for a quarter of a century. At the present child replacement rate, Italy's population will fall from its present level of 57 million to just 41 million by 2050. Said another way, by 2050, 60 percent of the group in question will have no brothers, sisters, aunts, or uncles, as pointed out by Mark Steyn in America Alone.
The story is the same throughout the countries of Europe. Here are birthrates of some of the countries of Europe. Remember the birthrate for a population that is neither increasing nor declining is 2.1 babies per woman of childbearing age.
Ireland - 1.87
Germany - 1.3
Austria - 1.3
Italy - 1.2
Russia - 1.2
Spain - 1.1.
At a replacement rate of 1.1, Spain is at half the stable population replacement rate. This means Spain's population is halving every generation. The magnitude of the numbers is difficult to comprehend. In 2000, the total population of Europe was 728 million.
By 2050 at the present rate of births, it will be less than 600 million, a loss of a staggering 125 million Europeans. In 1960, people of European origin, including U.S., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, made up one fourth of the world's population. In 2000 they were one-sixth of the total; by 2050 Europeans will be one-tenth of the total. See Pat Buchanan's "The Death of the West."
And the population is obviously aging. The numbers tell their own story. By 2050, only 2 percent of the population of Germany will be younger than 5 but more than 40 percent will be 65 or older. The implications for the social welfare systems of these countries will be catastrophic. In Europe the ratio of working-age people (15-64) to retired people (65 and older) will go from 4:1 in 2000, to 2:1 in 2050. This means there will be only two workers for every one retiree. Since the socialist democracies rely almost entirely on public pension systems, the burden on those remaining in the workforce will be oppressive. Where will the tax revenue come from to support this graying population when there are no young workers entering the workforce?
At the other end of the spectrum are the countries and areas with birthrates well above replacement rates. The countries with the highest fertility rates are; Niger 7.46, Mali 7.42, Somalia 6.76, Afghanistan 6.69, and Yemen 6.58. In a word, the fastest growing countries by population are the Muslim countries of Africa and the Middle East. The spectrum of immigration, legal and illegal, cannot help but enter into this picture. Many of the countries of Europe have been importing laborers for many years to attempt to stabilize the population picture.
However, the numbers themselves preclude immigration as an ultimate solution. For example in Europe, in order to maintain the current ratio of 4.5 workers 15-64 for every senior, an unbelievable 1.4 billion immigrants from Africa and the Middle East would have to be brought in by 2050.
The ultimate casualty of the low European birth rate must ultimately be the debilitating social welfare systems currently in place. And modifying or replacing these excessive taxation/excessive benefit systems will not be easy, as the riots in France this past spring illustrated, when a government proposal was made to modify the pension benefits already guaranteed to France's seniors.
Suppose immigration does continue at rates that could maintain the social welfare systems. The casualty then would be the European cultures themselves. Italy, France, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium - all of these classic European cultures would be reduced to minority status in the countries that bear their names.
Native Brits will be a minority in London, the most British of cities, by 2010. Europe as a culture and a people would seem to be finished. But does it matter? What will happen when the native Dutch population of the Netherlands is 30 percent of the total population and the majority Muslim population votes to impose Shariah law in that country? We will return to this topic in future columns.
And the birth rate in the United States? Currently it is at almost exactly 2.1, a number that sustains the current population.
Al Kelsch is a Hollister resident who writes a weekly column for the Free Lance that runs on Saturdays. He can be contacted at oibland@yahoo.com
Al Kelsch Al Kelsch lives in Hollister with his wife Judy. They both enjoy running and singing. E-mail him at oibland@yahoo.com.
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